COVID-19: THE WAY FORWARD – PART 3

HERE IS “THE SCIENCE”

Two people have died of COVID-19 under the age of 19.  Two.  How is it possible that we are playing silly games with the opening and closing of schools?  How are teachers not safe?  Obviously, children have some immunity to COVID-19.    321 people have died in Canada of COVID-19 under the age of 60.  1039 people have died under 70 years of age.  Let’s put this in perspective; 8511 people died of the flu in 2018.    What are we doing running around with masks on and shutting down our economy?

If you are less than 70 years old, your chance of dying from COVID-19 is 0.0025%.  This is slightly more than one-two thousandths of a percent. Statistically zero.  If you are under 70, you are 4x more likely to kill yourself than die of this virus (approximately 4150 suicides in 2017).  We do not spend $350B on suicide prevention ($350B is the tab so far on COVID-19 relief).  The COVID-19 shutdown may be creating more suicides than actual deaths from the virus in people aged under 70.  What are we doing here?

321 people have died under the age of 60 years old from COVID-19.  There were 1500 people who died last year from alcohol-related car crashes.  There are 31M+ people in Canada under 60.  Their mortality rate from COVID-19 since January 2020 is 0.0009%.  For all intents and purposes, this is zero.  Why is anyone under 60 wearing a mask?  Why are they social distancing?  They have no statistical chance of dying from COVID-19 (1 in a 100,000 chance).  Lately, our leadership has been making noise about a surge in infections.  At this point in time, infections (or cases) are irrelevant.  Firstly, deaths are important, secondly, hospitalizations are important (because they could lead to deaths).  It is not really concerning if you contract COVID-19 and survive which is what 99.9991% of people under 60 did; they survived the first 10 months of COVID-19.  Humans get flu every year and most survive.  It is not realistic to believe we can save everyone from the seasonal flu, just as it is not realistic to believe we can save everyone from COVID-19.  We should make a reasonable effort that doesn’t involve a world economic collapse.

The curve below shows infections (cases) in Canada since March.  You will note that currently, infections are rising again.  This is likely due to relaxed quarantines and a 5.3X increase in testing since May (from 15,000/day to 80,000/day).  If someone tests positive and they aren’t very sick or dying, this is a good thing.  It brings us closer to herd immunity.  COVID-19 will only end when we achieve herd immunity.

The next curve shows daily deaths.  You will notice since July 18^th that deaths are at a very low level (typically 0-20/day) versus 200/day in April, May, and June.  In 2018, 8511 people died in Canada of influenza (seasonal flu).  This is an average daily rate of 23 deaths per day.  Since July 18^th, we have averaged 11.6 deaths per day; one half of a typical flu year.  This is ‘the science’ and it reflects that higher infections are not very concerning in light of a greatly reduced mortality rate (note: the spike in deaths on October 2^nd/3^rd was due to a data dump of 76 deaths from May/June added dishonestly without comment from the media or the government).

The next graph shows infections at the top versus hospitalizations (including ICU hospitalizations in Ontario) on the lower curve.  The lower curve indicates that hospitalizations peaked at 1000 per day in May and currently are at 195 per day.  Keep in mind most of these hospitalizations do not result in admission to the ICU so they are mild treatable infections.  In any event, with 384 hospitals in Ontario, 195 admissions a day for COVID-19 is a low manageable number.  More importantly, Ontario ICU admissions were almost 300/day in April, now they are down to the low 70s.  All those patients are being well treated.  In general, overall hospitalizations and ICU admissions are 1/5 of what they were in May.

The total number of COVID-19  ICU admissions in Canada since March has been 13,000, an average of 60 per day.  Across Canada, with 1244 hospitals, an average of 60 people per day was admitted to ICUs.  Concerns from overcrowding the ICU was NEVER an issue.  NEVER.  This statistic has never been reported by the media or the government.  Obviously, hospitalizations have never been an issue and more serious ICU admissions were even less of an issue.  For months, there has been no indication at all in Canada of overflowing hospitals or high numbers of seriously ill COVID-19 patients.  Currently, in Ontario, there are 72 patients in ICU in 384 Ontario hospitals.  72 people in a population of 14.5 million.

If daily deaths across Canada have flatlined to near single digits and ICU hospitalizations have now flatlined to a very low number, then infections (or cases) should not be a serious concern.  Cases with low mortality are positive for reaching herd immunity and ultimately protecting society.  It also indicates that to a large extent, COVID-19 is well in hand and diminishing in lethality.  If people are currently dying at a quarter of the rate of the seasonal flu and ICU hospitalizations are very low, why do the media and our government continue to try and scare us and shut us down?  The first chart shows the lunacy of the current government’s actions.  High cases, low to no deaths is what we wanted.  We now have it.  Why focus on cases?  Isn’t the point of all of this to reduce deaths and ICU admissions?  I think any reasonable person would agree, so why is our government and its advisors being so unreasonable?  Our government should be honest about this very positive information and de-stress the public with obvious positive news.

The strategy from the outset should have been protecting people 70+ years of age, people in long-term care, and people with serious health conditions. Less than 1,000 individuals died under 70 years of age, 8,800 died above 70.  Many of these people likely had serious health conditions and died with complications from COVID-19 (IE – late-stage dementia but died with COVID-19).  1000 deaths in the 70-year-old and less cohort is a terrible thing.  Does it warrant a total economic shutdown?  Does it warrant a ridiculous social distancing/mask-wearing program that forced the economy into continued massive unemployment and business closings?  How many 70+ year-olds are partying at bars and nightclubs?  How many are still in the workforce?  Very few.  Isolating and protecting these people is the smart solution.  If we spent even $5B on this protocol, we would have avoided the $350B spending spree the government engaged in on COVID-19 stimulus due to lockdowns.  How many thousands of people have been severely injured economically?  How many businesses have closed FOREVER!?  How many have killed themselves over the government shutdowns?  How many are newly or once again addicted to drugs and alcohol?  Why are we being lied to about immunity?  Of course, if you get COVID-19 and survive you have some immunity.  The first ‘miracle’ double infection recently reported was an 89-year-old Dutch lady who had a rare bone marrow cancer with a compromised and ravaged immune system.  Of course, she got sick twice, she had no immunity to anything.  If you don’t look, the media won’t tell. If we stretch our exposure to COVID-19 for years, it’s obvious that some people may get infected twice.

Today, we are now 8 months in and our government and their medical advisors are focusing on irrelevant data.  If “following the science” is the mantra, then we should follow the science.  Since July 16^th, daily mortalities have averaged close to zero per day 11.6/day average), down from a high of 200 per day.  ICU hospitalizations are also down to very low levels.  Currently, infections are roughly 2500+/day but testing is up by a massive 5.3X from May.  These cases aren’t serious because deaths are close to single digits per day and very few patients are in the ICU.  If mortality rates are now ¼ of the seasonal flu and have been so for over 12 weeks, and ICU admissions are very low, why are cases even relevant?  What is ‘the science’ behind shutdowns and social distancing with infections rising among a population that is being mildly affected?  This is total nonsense.  This is harming people beyond justification.  If our leaders and media advisors are this blind to the logic and science in front of them, then we need to look for new leaders and advisors.  This group has steered our economy into the sewer.  They have lied and mislead our citizens with deliberate misinformation and have coerced our media into focusing on irrelevant information instead of what we really needed to know.  The goal has been to terrify with half-truths.  For instance, why won’t they admit young people are typically immune and not dying?  Why won’t they discuss the clear evidence that they are not spreading the virus?  The story that teachers are at risk is a lie.  How are teachers realistically at risk?  Children are safe and teachers are not in a risky cohort.  Why won’t they clearly release the mortalities with underlying illnesses so we can understand the true risk to all healthy people?  How many healthy people have died without one or more underlying illnesses’?  This information was, and is, vital to understanding the virus’ true danger.  According to the CDC in the USA, only 6% of mortalities were in healthy people; 94% had an average of 2.6 additional contributing illnesses or conditions.  Why has this been hidden in Canada?  In Canada, this would mean that just 600 healthy people died from COVID-19.  Seriously?  Why are they purposefully overstating COVID-19 deaths by misreporting the true cause of death?  Students should be back in school without change.  The average age of a teacher is less than 45 years so they are statistically safe.  Of course, any teacher with underlying health conditions or at high-risk should not be at work.  It is criminal what our politicians and the media have done to our citizens; misleading and misadvising so we cower from COVID-19 when there is minimal risk to virtually everyone.  The ridiculous narrative that teachers are at risk is untrue and certainly is not reflected in “the science.”  None of this is to say that any COVID-related death is acceptable.  Obviously, protecting people is the goal, but as a society, we must accept some mortality from COVID-19.  We cannot protect everyone and ensure zero mortality.  How does this hysterical nonsense make any sense; even the World Health Organization is now advocating for no shutdowns.  Some people will die as they do from influenza, suicides, drug overdoses, cancer; it is unavoidable and irresponsible to tell Canadians that the government can protect everyone all the time.  The government has never made this claim until COVID-19 appeared.  The issue is at what cost do we try to protect everyone when it is surely an impossible task.  We have accepted that there will be some casualties from influenza.  We need to accept that the same holds true for the Coronavirus.  It is not immoral to accept this is the reality of life on earth.  In 2018, 8,511 Canadian’s died of the flu.  To date, 9800 Canadians have died of COVID-19.  By properly isolating the high-risk people, this could have been greatly reduced to a few hundred people (if people with comorbidities had been made safe).  I for one have had enough of the endless lockdowns and government misinformation and half-truths.  We need to take back our country and our rights.  We need to loudly and clearly reflect this to our local, provincial, and federal government.  Our voices have stayed silent, patiently waiting for some sanity to return but it is clear now that this will not happen any time soon.  We will see more shutdowns, more masks, more distancing, more economic pain.

If you have had enough as I have, visit pushbackongovernment.com and register your support.  I propose to take this protest to Queen’s Park.  If enough people join me, we can have our voices heard.  Our futures are in our own hands, let’s take back our lives.  The more voices the better.  Enough is enough.

Brad J. Lamb